Summary

Below normal stream flows and groundwater levels coupled with low confidence in the monthly drought predictions and uncertain precipitation forecasts, means careful tracking of drought conditions must continue.

 

In February, cold temperatures, as well as just enough precipitation and snowpack resulted in no change to drought designation in the 15% of the state that is experiencing "moderate drought (D1)" and little change to the approximate 40% of the state experiencing "abnormally dry" conditions.

 

Hydrological conditions across the state indicate drought recovery has weakened as the winter has progressed:

 

 

Equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation are predicted through March, meaning a prediction on the impact to drought conditions cannot be made with confidence.

 

The U.S.Seasonal Drought Outlook is promising, with a moderate confidence in drought removal by the end of May, although the prediction is based on the Seasonal Precipitation Outlook, which favors above average precipitation in northern New Hampshire, but equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation in the majority of the state.

 

Water Resource Updates

 

February stream flows were normal to below normal across the state. Below normal stream flows encompass the Connecticut River watershed and parts of the Merrimack River watershed located in the western half of the state and the Piscataqua River watershed in the coastal region. (Note* Data is not available for many streams across the state, as gauges freeze during the winter.)

In February, the majority of the state received between 1" to 3" of precipitation, which ranged from 50%-100% of normal.

In February, the majority of the state received between 15" to 30" of snow. In the southern 2/3rds of the state, the amount received was 5" to 15" above normal. In the upper 1/3rd of the state the amount received ranged from 10" below normal to 5" above normal.

The monthly precipitation outlook for March predicts equal chances for above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation across the state.

 

Above normal temperatures are favored across the state.

The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook favors drought removal, although the forecast confidence is considered low. Confidence is considered low as the precipitation outlook favors equal chances of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation, but leans toward improvement as the snowpack is considered decent, there are no expected variations in climatology, and there are no drought impacts (common in winter).

 

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook also favors drought removal and has a moderate confidence, based on the Seasonal Precipitation Outlook, although this outlook only favors above normal precipitation up north in Coos County while equal chances for above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation is favored in the rest of the state.

Additional Resources

Regional Forecast - National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Groundwater Level Reports - NH Geological Survey

Long Term Precipitation Deficits - Northeast River Forecast Center